Escape From Poverty Trap: The Eradication of Iodine Deficiency Disorders and Migration of Rural Residents in China

刘瑞明，中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院教授、博导，中国人民大学国有经济研究院执行院长，国家级人才计划特聘教授，《产业经济评论》执行副主编，主要研究转型经济学、发展经济学、产业经济学。以第一作者或通讯作者在《经济研究》《管理世界》《经济学季刊》《世界经济》《中国工业经济》、Research Policy等杂志发表60多篇论文，主持国家社会科学基金重大项目、国家自然科学基金项目等多项国家级、省部级项目，曾获得“教育部中国高等学校科学研究优秀成果奖”“第四届张培刚发展经济学青年学者奖”“第六届黄达-蒙代尔经济学奖”“首届谭崇台发展经济学奖”“第四届洪银兴经济学奖”等学术荣誉。

Leveraging the policy shock of China's 1988 Salt Regie System (SRS) which aims to eliminate iodine deficiency disorders (IDD), this paper first provides causal evidence and mechanisms of endemic disease eradication on migration. Based on a county-level IDD dataset and population census, we show the SRS increased inter-county migration by 0.51% for rural residents, equating to at least 1.64 million additional migrants. Health and education improvements could explain this effect, which is more pronounced for poor households and salt-scarce areas. Moreover, SRS generated about $127 billion in welfare from migration.